The 1972 Agrim MIT study predicted that society will collapse in the middle of the 21st century, causing criticism and generating debates. It turns out that the study was right in money, and we, as groups, in fact, are on the way to such a future scenario. A new newspaper reviewed the MIT study and found that social collapse is in fact at the table. We can still change, and the future is not definitive. Even in the worst case, humanity will not cease to exist of 2040. But the world could go through more challenging times if prediction becomes a reality.
The controversial MIT Society Collapse Studio
Published by the Club of Rome, the 1972 study offered a system of system dynamics that identified “growth limits” (LTG). The factors, such as overexploitation, would feed collapse, which said MIT could occur within the 21st century.
MIT researchers saw a lot of criticism at that time, I inform Vice. But a new article by a Senior Director of KPMG now says that the scenario that is identified is still plausible.
Gaya Herrington is the sustainability and analysis of the leading dynamic system in KPMG in the US. UU He looked at the MIT study as part of Harvard’s main thesis. The study is not tied directly to one of the great firms of four accountants in the world. Even so, the study is published on the KPMG site, but also in the November 2020 edition of Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology.
When growth is no longer possible.
“Given the unattractive prospect of Collapse, I was curious to see what scenarios they lined up more closely with empirical data today,” explained the author on the KPMG website. “After all, the book presented by this global model was a sales success in the 70s, and for now, we would have several decades of empirical data that would make a significant comparison. But to my surprise, I could not find recent attempts for this . So I decided to do it myself. “
Herrington examined the data of 10 key variables to study the prediction of the collapse of MIT society. He analyzed the population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial production, food production, services, non-renewable resources, persistent pollution, human well-being and the ecological footprint. The data of it identified two probable scenarios for the coming years: ‘BAU2’ (Business-As-usual) and ‘CT’ (integral technology).
The collapse of society is not the end.
The collapse of society sounds like a death sentence for humanity, but that is not the case. “Economic and industrial growth will stop, and then decrease, which will affect food production and standards … In terms of time, the BAU2 scenario shows a strong decline to set around 2040,” the plate said base.
The CT scenario would still provide an economic decline on the same date, but not similar to social collapse.
There is also a scenario called Stabilized World (SW) that would avoid the mine’s result of MIT. But that is at least likely based on the latest empirical data.
Humanity could follow a sustainable path that would prevent the collapse of society. Economic growth would continue to see small decreases in SW, but it would not be as bad as the business as always.
The problem is that society is approximately 10 years to make decisions that would alter the course. A stabilized world scenario could replace the MIT of social collapse expected. Leaving aside the research models, time will tell you if the 1972 prediction of MIT on the imminent societal collapse will come true.