Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump, says historian who has correctly predicted every presidential contest since 1984

Joe Biden

Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump, says Allan Lichtman – an author and history professor at American University – who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s win in 2016 presidential election over Democratic Party rival Hillary Clinton.

Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential contest since 1984.

“I am predicting, contrary to my 2016 predictions, that with seven keys out against him — one more than is needed to predict his defeat — Trump is going to lose this time,” Lichtman told CTV’s Your Morning.

Lichtman calls his system the “13 keys” to predict who will win US presidential elections.

This is a collection of true or false questions. A true answer gives one point to the incumbent candidate or party. A false answer gives a point for the challenger.

“My model is unique. It’s based on the insight that American presidential elections are essentially votes up or down on the strength and performance of the party holding the White House,” Lichtman said.

Lichtman was one of the only forecasters to predict that Donald Trump would become the US president in 2016. He also correctly predicted that Trump would be impeached.

“In 2016, I defied all the conventional wisdom and made myself very unpopular in 90 per cent plus Democratic Washington, D.C. by predicting a Trump victory,” Lichtman said.


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